Closing Line Value Calculator

Why is CLV considered more predictive than my actual win-loss record?

Win-loss records over any realistic sample size (dozens to low hundreds of bets) are heavily influenced by variance — a skilled bettor can run bad for months and an unskilled one can run hot. CLV strips out that noise because it measures your price relative to the market's most efficient number at every single bet, giving a much faster and more stable read on whether you're finding real value.

What counts as good CLV?

Consistently beating the closing line by even 1-2% in implied probability across a large sample is considered a strong, sustainable signal in sharp betting circles. Beating it by 3%+ regularly is rare and typically associated with serious modeling or very fast execution on line moves — most casual bettors, even disciplined ones, hover near breakeven CLV or slightly negative.

Can I have negative CLV but still be a long-run winning bettor?

It's possible over a small sample, but it's a warning sign over a large one. If the closing line consistently prices your bets as worse than your entry price, on average, it suggests you're getting favorable results despite the market disagreeing with your timing, which historically tends to regress rather than persist.

Does CLV apply to fantasy or futures bets the same way?

The same logic applies to any market with a clear closing price — futures, season win totals, and player props all technically have a 'closing' number, though liquidity and how often the number moves varies a lot more than in game lines. CLV is most reliable and most commonly tracked on frequently-traded game lines like spreads, totals, and moneylines.