Wishlists are a leading indicator, not a promise
Conversion depends on how the wishlists were earned. A list built from a strong demo and festival exposure converts far better than one built from giveaway traffic or unrelated audiences. If you're unsure, model 8–10% for launch week rather than the optimistic end.
What eats the sticker price
Run through the deductions in order before you plan a budget around gross sales.
- • Launch discounts are near-standard and come straight off the top.
- • Regional pricing lowers the average sale materially when a big share of buyers are outside high-income markets.
- • VAT and sales tax are deducted before the revenue split in most territories.
- • Refunds inside the store's window are a real, recurring 5–10%.
Cost per wishlist is the marketing metric that matters
Once you know net revenue per wishlist, every marketing decision becomes arithmetic: if a wishlist nets you a few dollars over a year, you know exactly what a festival, a trailer, or a creator campaign can afford to cost.
Related guides
Long-form playbooks on the same topic, written by the RevenueLab editorial team.
Shopify Conversion Rate Benchmarks 2026: What's Good for Your Vertical
Median Shopify conversion rates by vertical, the metrics that matter more than CR (AOV, repeat rate, contribution margin), and a teardown of why most stores miss their forecast.
Read the guideYouTube Channel Memberships in 2026: Realistic Conversion Rates and Monthly Revenue
What percentage of subscribers actually convert to paid members, how the $4.99 / $9.99 / $24.99 tiers perform, YouTube's 30% cut, and why memberships out-earn ad RPM by 50–200×.
Read the guideYouTube Channel Memberships in 2026: Realistic Conversion Rates and Monthly Revenue
What percentage of subscribers actually convert to paid members, how the $4.99 / $9.99 / $24.99 tiers perform, YouTube's 30% cut, and why memberships out-earn ad RPM by 50–200×.
Read the guideFAQ
How many wishlists do I need for a successful launch?
There's no threshold that guarantees anything, but the arithmetic is clear: multiply wishlists by 8–20% for launch week and by your net-per-unit to see whether the result covers development. Many developers aim for 7,000–10,000 minimum to trigger meaningful store visibility.
Do wishlists convert better with a demo?
Generally yes — wishlists from players who tried a demo convert notably better than cold ones, because they've already validated interest. Segment your estimate if a large share came from a demo.
Does the store cut ever drop below 30%?
Some storefronts reduce their share above high lifetime-revenue thresholds. Most indie titles never reach them, so 30% is the honest planning assumption.
Should I discount at launch?
A modest launch discount is conventional and can boost visibility, but it also anchors price expectations. Model both cases here before committing.
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