Why net retention beats new logos
A SaaS at 115% NRR doubles ARR every 5 years without selling another seat. At 90% NRR (net contraction), even 8% MoM new-business growth produces flat-line ARR by month 24. NRR is the single most-correlated metric with public SaaS revenue multiples.
Building a defensible forecast
Three layers: bookings (committed contracts), pipeline-weighted forecast (probability × deal size × close month), and run-rate (current MRR × 12). Boards want all three with bridges between them. Don't present a single number — present the gap.
Seasonality is real
B2B SaaS sees Q4 booking surges (budget burn) +10–20% over baseline, then Q1 dips. Consumer/ecommerce SaaS sees the opposite — usage drops in late Dec. Model it explicitly; don't smooth it.
Related guides
Long-form playbooks on the same topic, written by the RevenueLab editorial team.
SaaS Pricing Strategy: Per-Seat, Usage, Tiers, and the Hybrid Future
A framework for choosing a SaaS pricing model — when per-seat caps your growth, when usage-based makes revenue volatile, and how hybrid models stitch the two together.
Read the guide10 Common Revenue Modeling Mistakes (And the Sanity Checks That Catch Them)
The ten revenue-model mistakes I see in every founder spreadsheet — confused gross vs net, ignoring churn, fixed conversion rates, missing taxes — and the back-of-envelope checks that catch them in 30 seconds.
Read the guideHow to Use Revenue Calculators Without Fooling Yourself
A practical guide to using online revenue calculators well — what inputs to trust, what defaults to override, when to use a 0.7× safety multiplier, and how to triangulate between three tools instead of trusting one.
Read the guideFAQ
How accurate is a 12-month forecast?
Top-quartile finance teams hit ±10% on revenue at 12 months. Median is ±20–25%. The volatility comes mostly from churn surprises and large-deal slip — both improve with better cohort visibility.
What's Rule of 40?
Growth % + EBITDA margin % ≥ 40. A SaaS growing 50% can lose 10% EBITDA and still pass. A SaaS growing 15% needs 25%+ profitability. Used by every late-stage SaaS investor.
Should I model contraction?
Yes — separately from churn. Customers who downgrade aren't lost; they're a different revenue motion. Track contraction MRR alongside expansion to get accurate NRR.
How this calculator is built
Independently maintained
Written by Sam Doshi and the RevenueLab editorial team. We don't sell the data feeds this tool is built on.
Sourced from primary data
Benchmarks come from public AdSense / Stripe / IRS disclosures and reader-submitted data — never third-party "$X per view" claims. Full methodology.
Last reviewed
June 2026. We re-check every figure on the platform on a rolling quarterly cycle.
Editorial standards
See our editorial policy and disclaimer. Results are estimates, not advice.