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Forecasting · Free calculator

Revenue Forecast Calculator

Project 12-month revenue from current MRR, growth rate, net revenue retention, and seasonality. Outputs run-rate, ending ARR, and total bookings for the period.

Short answer

Revenue Forecast Calculator

$986,458Projected ARR at month 12

🟡 Net growth 3.5% is sustainable but won't 2× ARR this year. Bigger move: cut churn 100bps before chasing new logos. Starting at $45,000 MRR and compounding 6.0% new business minus 2.5% churn plus 1.5% expansion, MRR ends at $82,205 ($986,458 ARR). Over the 12-month horizon you book $754,135 in cumulative recurring revenue — that's the number to fund quota and runway against.

How it's calculated: MRR $45,000 → $82,205 · NRR 99.0% · 12-mo horizon Adjust the inputs below to recalculate for your own numbers.

Disclaimer: Educational tool only — not financial, tax, accounting, or business advice. Tax-rate fields reflect 2026 state Department of Revenue published rates and the most common local maximums; verify against your jurisdiction's destination address before remitting. Platform splits (Twitch, Steam, AdMob) reflect public 2025–2026 disclosures and your contract terms may differ. Verify with a qualified advisor.

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$45,000
6%
2.5%
1.5%
15%

Applied to new business in Nov/Dec only.

12 mo
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ARR calculatorAnnual revenue calculatorRevenue increase calculator
Formula used

Compounding MRR model

Net growth = new − churn + expansion. Compounded monthly, small changes in churn dominate. Cutting churn 100bps usually beats lifting new business 100bps.

MRRₜ = MRRₜ₋₁ × (1 + new% × season − churn% + expansion%)
Healthy SaaS NRR (B2B)
115%+
Top-quartile gross churn
<1%/mo
Rule of 40 floor
Growth + EBITDA ≥ 40
Forecast accuracy at 12mo
±15% typical
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Why net retention beats new logos

A SaaS at 115% NRR doubles ARR every 5 years without selling another seat. At 90% NRR (net contraction), even 8% MoM new-business growth produces flat-line ARR by month 24. NRR is the single most-correlated metric with public SaaS revenue multiples.

Building a defensible forecast

Three layers: bookings (committed contracts), pipeline-weighted forecast (probability × deal size × close month), and run-rate (current MRR × 12). Boards want all three with bridges between them. Don't present a single number — present the gap.

Seasonality is real

B2B SaaS sees Q4 booking surges (budget burn) +10–20% over baseline, then Q1 dips. Consumer/ecommerce SaaS sees the opposite — usage drops in late Dec. Model it explicitly; don't smooth it.

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FAQ

How accurate is a 12-month forecast?

Top-quartile finance teams hit ±10% on revenue at 12 months. Median is ±20–25%. The volatility comes mostly from churn surprises and large-deal slip — both improve with better cohort visibility.

What's Rule of 40?

Growth % + EBITDA margin % ≥ 40. A SaaS growing 50% can lose 10% EBITDA and still pass. A SaaS growing 15% needs 25%+ profitability. Used by every late-stage SaaS investor.

Should I model contraction?

Yes — separately from churn. Customers who downgrade aren't lost; they're a different revenue motion. Track contraction MRR alongside expansion to get accurate NRR.

How this calculator is built

Independently maintained

Written by Sam Doshi and the RevenueLab editorial team. We don't sell the data feeds this tool is built on.

Sourced from primary data

Benchmarks come from public AdSense / Stripe / IRS disclosures and reader-submitted data — never third-party "$X per view" claims. Full methodology.

Last editorial review

Reviewed on a rolling quarterly cycle. Dated reviews are published on the methodology record for each calculator.

Editorial standards

See our editorial policy and disclaimer. Results are estimates, not advice.

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