Sequence-of-returns risk is the real enemy
Two retirees with the same average return over 30 years can end in completely different places depending on when the bad years arrive. A 30% drop in year two, while you are withdrawing, permanently shrinks the base that has to recover. That is why the poor-returns scenario above matters far more than the average.
Flexibility beats precision
Research consistently shows that cutting withdrawals modestly after a bad year dramatically improves survival — far more than getting the starting rate exactly right. A plan that can drop from 4.5% to 3.8% for two years after a crash is more robust than a rigid 4% plan.
Allocation in retirement
Too much in bonds looks safe but loses to inflation over a 30-year horizon. Too much in stocks exposes you to a bad first decade. Most retirement research lands somewhere between 40% and 70% equities during drawdown, often rising over time as the remaining horizon shortens.
What this model leaves out
Taxes, which differ sharply between taxable, traditional and Roth accounts; required minimum distributions from 73; healthcare costs before Medicare; long-term care; and the reality that real retirement spending typically declines in the later years. Treat the output as a stress test, not a forecast.
FAQ
Will my retirement savings last 30 years?
At a 4% initial withdrawal rate with a 50–75% equity allocation, historically it has in the large majority of periods. The calculator shows your plan against good, central and poor return scenarios so you can see which conditions break it.
How much can I withdraw from $1 million?
The classic rule says $40,000 in year one, rising with inflation. With Social Security or a pension covering part of your spending, the pressure on the portfolio drops sharply — which is why the other-income input matters so much.
Is the 4% rule still valid?
It remains a reasonable starting point. Some researchers argue for 3.3–3.7% given current valuations and longer lifespans; others argue 4.5%+ is fine for anyone willing to adjust spending after bad years. Flexibility matters more than the exact starting number.
Should I include Social Security?
Yes. Every dollar of guaranteed income is a dollar you do not withdraw from the portfolio, and it is inflation-indexed. Leaving it out makes a workable plan look like a failing one.
How this calculator is built
Independently maintained
Written by Sam Doshi and the RevenueLab editorial team. We don't sell the data feeds this tool is built on.
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Reviewed on a rolling quarterly cycle. Dated reviews are published on the methodology record for each calculator.
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See our editorial policy and disclaimer. Results are estimates, not advice.