Deductions vs credits
A $1,000 deduction saves you your marginal rate — $220 in the 22% bracket. A $1,000 credit saves you $1,000. That is why the child tax credit, education credits and the saver's credit move the refund far more than an equivalent deduction, and why chasing deductions is often the lower-value strategy.
Why itemising rarely wins now
With the standard deduction at $15,750 single and $31,500 joint, and the SALT deduction capped, most households come out ahead taking the standard. Itemising typically only wins with a large mortgage in a high-tax state, a major charitable year, or substantial medical expenses above the AGI floor.
The big refund is not a win
The average refund runs in the low thousands. That is an interest-free loan to the Treasury, repaid months later. Adjusting the W-4 to land near zero puts the same money in your paycheck every period, where it can pay down debt or earn interest. The only reason to prefer the refund is behavioural — some people genuinely save better that way.
If you have 1099 income
Self-employment tax is 15.3% on top of income tax, and nothing is withheld. Set aside 25–30% of every 1099 dollar and make quarterly estimated payments, or the April bill plus an underpayment penalty arrives together. Business expenses reduce both income tax and SE tax, which makes tracking them unusually valuable.
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Read the guideFAQ
How much will my tax refund be?
Subtract your total tax from what was withheld. On $78,000 of wages with $8,400 withheld, a $5,000 retirement contribution and no dependants, the estimate comes out near break-even. Enter your W-2 figures above for your own number.
Is this the official TurboTax calculator?
No. RevenueLab is independent and not affiliated with TurboTax or Intuit. This runs the same core federal arithmetic with 2026 figures, without a sign-up.
Why is my refund smaller this year?
The usual causes are a raise that moved your withholding, a child ageing out of the credit, less withholding after a W-4 change, or new side income with no tax withheld on it.
Does this include state tax?
No — this is federal only. State refunds follow entirely separate brackets, deductions and credits. Use a state-specific calculator alongside this one.
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