Rex says
Money math without the spreadsheet headache. Plug in your numbers and I'll show you exactly where the dollars land.
Try a scenario
Click to load — tweak from there.Inputs
Result
Net revenue change / month
$1,267
Projected new monthly revenue
$73,267
Revenue change vs. today
1.8%
Max attrition before losing money
5.7%
New monthly tuition
$1,272
Psst — share this and help Rex grow
One click, a permanent link with your numbers baked in.
How to use this
- 1Enter currently enrolled children.
- 2Enter current monthly tuition ($).
- 3Enter planned tuition increase (%).
- 4Enter expected attrition from increase (%).
- 5Read your net revenue change / month on the right — it updates as you type.
- 6Hit Share to keep the scenario or send it to someone.
About this calculator
Raising tuition always risks losing a slice of families, and directors need to know the break-even attrition rate before announcing a change. This calculator takes your planned tuition increase, current enrollment, and an assumed attrition rate from the increase, then computes net revenue after losses and the maximum attrition you could absorb before the increase becomes a net loss. It also shows the per-child revenue gain from families who stay, which is often larger than people expect for even a modest percentage bump. Elasticity in childcare is lower than in most retail categories because switching centers involves disruption for the child and a scramble for a waitlist spot elsewhere, but it isn't zero, especially at price-sensitive tiers or right after a well-publicized rate hike. Use this before a rate change and again a quarter after to compare actual attrition to what you modeled, tightening your assumptions for next year's increase.
Worked example
Using the values the calculator loads with:
Inputs
- Currently enrolled children: 60
- Current monthly tuition: 1200 $
- Planned tuition increase: 6 %
- Expected attrition from increase: 4 %
Results
- Net revenue change / month: $1,267
- Projected new monthly revenue: $73,267
- Revenue change vs. today: 1.8%
- Max attrition before losing money: 5.7%
- New monthly tuition: $1,272
What each field means
Inputs
- Currently enrolled children
- The currently enrolled children used in the calculation. Starts at 60 so you have a working example on load.
- Current monthly tuition ($)
- The current monthly tuition used in the calculation, measured in $. Starts at 1200 $ so you have a working example on load.
- Planned tuition increase (%)
- The planned tuition increase used in the calculation, measured in %. Starts at 6 % so you have a working example on load. Accepted range: 0–100 %.
- Expected attrition from increase (%)
- The expected attrition from increase used in the calculation, measured in %. Starts at 4 % so you have a working example on load. Accepted range: 0–100 %.
Results
- Net revenue change / month
- Returned as a money amount in US dollars and shown as the headline result. It recalculates instantly whenever you change an input, so you can compare scenarios without reloading.
- Projected new monthly revenue
- Returned as a money amount in US dollars. It recalculates instantly whenever you change an input, so you can compare scenarios without reloading.
- Revenue change vs. today
- Returned as a percentage. It recalculates instantly whenever you change an input, so you can compare scenarios without reloading.
- Max attrition before losing money
- Returned as a percentage. It recalculates instantly whenever you change an input, so you can compare scenarios without reloading.
- New monthly tuition
- Returned as a money amount in US dollars. It recalculates instantly whenever you change an input, so you can compare scenarios without reloading.
FAQ
How much attrition should I actually expect?
Industry rules of thumb suggest 2-5% attrition for a single-digit percentage increase when it's communicated with 60+ days notice and tied to a visible reason (minimum wage change, new programming). Increases above 8-10%, or ones sprung with little notice, tend to push attrition into double digits, especially among families already comparison shopping.
Why does breakeven attrition matter more than the raw revenue number?
It tells you your margin of safety. If breakeven attrition is 5% and you expect 4%, you have a thin cushion and should watch withdrawal notices closely in the following two months. If breakeven attrition is 15%, you have a lot of room and can be confident the increase pays off even if response is worse than planned.
Does this account for replacing lost families from the waitlist?
No, it models only the enrolled population reacting to price. If you have an active waitlist, backfilling departed slots at the new (higher) tuition rate makes almost every increase profitable regardless of attrition, since replacement families never experienced the old, lower price as a reference point.
Should tuition increases be the same percentage across all classrooms?
Not necessarily. Infant and toddler rooms have higher cost per child from tighter ratios and often have longer waitlists, meaning they can absorb larger increases with less attrition risk than a preschool room competing against many nearby options.
Accuracy and limitations
- Results are estimates before tax, fees, and inflation unless an input explicitly covers them.
- Rates are treated as fixed for the whole period — variable-rate products will drift from this projection.
- This is educational maths, not financial advice. Check anything contractual with the lender or your accountant.
Related tools
Classroom Enrollment Breakeven Calculator
Find the minimum enrolled children a classroom needs to cover its costs.
Tuition Discount Rate (Financial Aid) Calculator
See how much of your gross tuition revenue financial aid is actually consuming.
Enrollment Waitlist Conversion Value Calculator
Estimate the tuition revenue sitting in your childcare or school waitlist.
Cite this calculator
Writing about this topic? Grab a citation — every link helps keep these tools free.
RevenueLab. (2026). Tuition Increase Attrition Impact Calculator. Retrieved from https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/tuition-increase-attrition-impact
<p>Source: <a href="https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/tuition-increase-attrition-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tuition Increase Attrition Impact Calculator — RevenueLab</a> (2026).</p>
Source: [Tuition Increase Attrition Impact Calculator — RevenueLab](https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/tuition-increase-attrition-impact) (2026).