Rex says
Money math without the spreadsheet headache. Plug in your numbers and I'll show you exactly where the dollars land.
Try a scenario
Click to load — tweak from there.Inputs
Result
Expected annual value of this increase
$13,875
Expected gain vs no increase
-$6,525
Annual rent if tenant stays
$21,600
Total cost if tenant leaves
$4,150
Proposed new monthly rent
$1,800
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How to use this
- 1Enter current monthly rent ($).
- 2Enter proposed rent increase ($).
- 3Enter estimated probability tenant stays at this increase (%).
- 4Enter turnover cost if they leave ($).
- 5Enter expected vacancy if they leave (months).
- 6Read your expected annual value of this increase on the right — it updates as you type.
- 7Hit Share to keep the scenario or send it to someone.
About this calculator
Every dollar of renewal increase raises revenue if the tenant stays, but it also raises the probability they leave, and once they leave you eat a full turnover cost. This calculator models expected value across a few increase options using an estimated probability of the tenant staying at each increase level, so instead of picking a number by gut feel you can see which increase size maximizes expected annual value once the move-out risk and turnover cost are priced in — this is the same logic pricing teams use for demand elasticity, applied to a single renewal decision.
Worked example
Using the values the calculator loads with:
Inputs
- Current monthly rent: 1700 $
- Proposed rent increase: 100 $
- Estimated probability tenant stays at this increase: 70 %
- Turnover cost if they leave: 2800 $
- Expected vacancy if they leave: 0.75 months
Results
- Expected annual value of this increase: $13,875
- Expected gain vs no increase: -$6,525
- Annual rent if tenant stays: $21,600
- Total cost if tenant leaves: $4,150
- Proposed new monthly rent: $1,800
What each field means
Inputs
- Current monthly rent ($)
- The current monthly rent used in the calculation, measured in $. Starts at 1700 $ so you have a working example on load.
- Proposed rent increase ($)
- The proposed rent increase used in the calculation, measured in $. Starts at 100 $ so you have a working example on load.
- Estimated probability tenant stays at this increase (%)
- The estimated probability tenant stays at this increase used in the calculation, measured in %. Starts at 70 % so you have a working example on load. Accepted range: 0–100 %.
- Turnover cost if they leave ($)
- The turnover cost if they leave used in the calculation, measured in $. Starts at 2800 $ so you have a working example on load.
- Expected vacancy if they leave (months)
- The expected vacancy if they leave used in the calculation, measured in months. Starts at 0.75 months so you have a working example on load. Accepted range: 0–6 months.
Results
- Expected annual value of this increase
- Returned as a money amount in US dollars and shown as the headline result. It recalculates instantly whenever you change an input, so you can compare scenarios without reloading.
- Expected gain vs no increase
- Returned as a money amount in US dollars. It recalculates instantly whenever you change an input, so you can compare scenarios without reloading.
- Annual rent if tenant stays
- Returned as a money amount in US dollars. It recalculates instantly whenever you change an input, so you can compare scenarios without reloading.
- Total cost if tenant leaves
- Returned as a money amount in US dollars. It recalculates instantly whenever you change an input, so you can compare scenarios without reloading.
- Proposed new monthly rent
- Returned as a money amount in US dollars. It recalculates instantly whenever you change an input, so you can compare scenarios without reloading.
FAQ
How do I estimate the probability a tenant stays?
There's no perfect formula, but a reasonable starting point: a small increase in line with local rent growth (2-4%) often keeps stay probability above 85-90% for a satisfied tenant, while a large jump toward full market catch-up can drop it to 50-60% or lower depending on how far below market they currently sit and how tight the local rental market is.
Should I run this for multiple increase amounts?
Yes — that's the point of the model. Run $50, $100, $150, and $200 increase scenarios with your best-guess stay probability for each, and you'll typically find expected value peaks somewhere in the middle rather than at the largest increase, because the turnover risk grows faster than the extra rent as increases get larger.
Does this replace judgment about a specific tenant?
No — this is a portfolio-level expected-value framework, useful when you're setting a renewal policy across many units. For an individual excellent long-term tenant, the relationship and reliability value often outweighs a purely mathematical expected-value calculation, so use judgment alongside the model, not instead of it.
What if the tenant is already well below market?
The model will generally favor a larger increase in that case, since even a meaningfully higher stay-risk still nets more expected value when the rent gap is large — but temper large jumps with local tenant protection laws, since many cities and a few states cap allowable annual increase percentages regardless of market gap.
Accuracy and limitations
- Results are estimates before tax, fees, and inflation unless an input explicitly covers them.
- Rates are treated as fixed for the whole period — variable-rate products will drift from this projection.
- This is educational maths, not financial advice. Check anything contractual with the lender or your accountant.
Related tools
Cite this calculator
Writing about this topic? Grab a citation — every link helps keep these tools free.
RevenueLab. (2026). Lease Renewal Rent Increase Tradeoff Calculator. Retrieved from https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/lease-renewal-increase-tradeoff
<p>Source: <a href="https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/lease-renewal-increase-tradeoff" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lease Renewal Rent Increase Tradeoff Calculator — RevenueLab</a> (2026).</p>
Source: [Lease Renewal Rent Increase Tradeoff Calculator — RevenueLab](https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/lease-renewal-increase-tradeoff) (2026).