Paid Ads vs Organic Growth ROI Calculator
Honest ROI on both. Paid ads as monthly snapshot, organic as amortized-across-lifespan. The real picture, not the launch-day spike.
Paid
AOV × expected repeat purchases.
Organic
Writer + editor + design. Realistic: $200–$800.
Once it ranks. Realistic: 50–300 for niche, 500+ for hit pieces.
How long it earns before needing refresh. 24–36 is typical.
Paid ROAS (1st purchase)
2.29×
286 customers · $22,857 revenue
Organic ROAS (steady state)
22.50×
900 customers/mo · $72,000
Effective CAC
Paid CAC: $35 · Organic CAC (amortized): $4
Organic break-even: ~month 2 after you start publishing. Paid breaks even week 1 — that's the trade.
Conservative
11.25× organic
Realistic
22.50× organic
Aggressive
36.00× organic
Conservative assumes half your pieces never rank. Aggressive assumes 30% become evergreen winners.
Your channels both work. The smart move is portfolio: 70% on the cheaper CAC channel, 30% on the other for diversification.
ROAS sits in the healthy 2–3× band most operators target.
- Paid ROAS = (spend / CPA × AOV) / spend
- Organic monthly visits = pieces/mo × visits/piece × lifespan (steady state)
- Organic customers/mo = visits × conversion rate
- Organic ROAS = (customers × AOV) / monthly content spend
- Amortized CAC = (cost/piece ÷ (visits/piece × lifespan)) ÷ conversion rate
Common questions
Why does organic look better on paper but lose in year one?▾
Organic compounds. A blog post that costs $400 to produce might earn back $40/month for years. In month 1, that's terrible ROI. By month 18, paid can't touch it. The calculator amortizes content cost across its useful life.
What's a realistic ROAS?▾
1.5–3.5× for most ecommerce on Meta/Google. Below 1.5× you're losing money on customer LTV. Above 4× usually means you're under-spending and leaving growth on the table.
How do I estimate organic visits a piece of content earns?▾
Pick a target keyword, check its monthly search volume, multiply by your realistic CTR if you rank top-3 (10–25%). A keyword with 1,000 monthly searches and a #3 ranking earns ~120 visits/month.
Why does the lifespan of content matter so much?▾
Most calculator-friendly content earns for 24–36 months before needing a refresh. Trend content earns for 3–6 months. A 30-month-life piece amortized monthly is 30× cheaper than a one-shot ad campaign.