What can your course actually launch for?
Outcome-value pricing × realistic conversion × format margin = a launch number you can defend a year from now. No 7-figure fantasy slides.
List + engaged followers you can actually reach.
1–2% cold · 3–5% warm · 5–15% loyal community.
$ gained, saved, or earned in 12 months.
10–20% defensible · <5% underpriced · >25% needs proof.
5–10% normal · 15%+ red flag.
Software, coaching hours, materials, support.
Net launch revenue
$435,240
208 buyers × $2,250 − refunds
Net profit
$419,765
Margin 96% after delivery
Price
$2,250
15.0% of $15,000 outcome
Buyers
208
2.60% effective conversion
Conservative
$261,144
Realistic
$435,240
Aggressive
$652,860
Bands swing on launch sequence quality, anchor testimonials, and timing (Jan/Sep strong, Dec/Aug weak).
Defensible price-to-outcome ratio (10–20%). This is the safe zone — focus on conversion craft, not pricing changes.
Pricing leverage is the easy win. Most courses can raise 20–30% per launch with no meaningful conversion drop, especially with new case studies.
- Price = year-1 outcome value × price-to-outcome %
- Effective conversion = base conv % × (1 + payment-plan uplift %)
- Buyers = audience × effective conversion
- Gross revenue = buyers × price
- Net revenue = gross × (1 − refund %)
- Net profit = net revenue − (buyers × (1 − refund %) × delivery cost)
Common questions
Cohort vs self-paced — which sells higher?▾
Cohort consistently 3–10× self-paced for the same content because of accountability and access. Self-paced wins on margin and volume; cohort wins on price and outcomes.
What % of audience will buy?▾
Cold list: 0.5–2%. Warm list / engaged followers: 2–5%. Loyal community: 5–15%. Use the conservative end when modeling a first launch.
How do I price for outcome?▾
Price as ~10–20% of the first-year financial value the student gains. A course that adds $20k of annual income justifies $2k–$4k. Below 5% means you're underpricing.
Should I offer payment plans?▾
Yes for anything above $500. 2–4 month plans typically lift conversion 25–40%, with a 10–15% upcharge. Almost everyone pays the full plan if your refund policy is clear.
What refund rate should I expect?▾
5–10% is normal for paid courses with a 14-day refund window. Above 15% means the sales page over-promised, the onboarding under-delivered, or the audience was wrong.