Pipeline forecast · Free calculator

Sales Pipeline & MRR Forecast Calculator

Forecast new MRR, steady-state MRR, customer LTV, and sales effort from monthly leads, close rate, average deal size, and retention months.

Disclaimer: Forecasts assume stable close rate, deal size, and retention across cohorts. Real pipelines have seasonality, mix shift, and cohort drift — use this for planning, not for booking revenue.

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Tap a scenario to load realistic numbers, then tweak the sliders.

120

SQLs entering the pipeline each month — not raw form fills.

18%

Lead → closed-won conversion across the full cycle.

$450

Monthly contract value. For annual deals, divide ACV by 12.

18

How long the average customer stays. Used when churn model is Auto (= 1 / retention).

35
6

Discovery + demos + follow-up + closing for each deal that actually closes.

0

Auto: monthly churn = 1 / retention months. Manual: use the monthly churn % below and ignore retention for the curve.

5%

Logo or revenue churn per month. Typical SMB SaaS: 3–7%. Mid-market: 1–3%. Enterprise: < 1%.

0%

Upsell + price increases minus contraction. Best-in-class SaaS runs 1–2%/mo (≈ 110–130% NRR). 0 = flat cohorts.

Forecast

MRR over 36 months

Cohorts compound until net churn balances new MRR. Steady-state = new MRR ÷ (churn − expansion).

Month 36
$152,609
Steady state
$97,200

Churn model: Auto uses 1 / retention each month; Manual uses the monthly churn input directly. Net expansion is added back to retained MRR — when expansion exceeds churn, the curve grows without a ceiling (net-negative churn).

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Formula used

Pipeline → MRR formula

Set churn model to Auto to derive monthly churn from retention (1 / months), or Manual to set it directly. Add net expansion to model upsell and price growth — when expansion ≥ churn, LTV and steady-state become unbounded (net-negative churn).

New MRR = Leads × Close% × Deal · LTV = Deal ÷ (Churn − Expansion) · Steady = New MRR ÷ (Churn − Expansion)
Healthy SMB close rate
15–25%
Enterprise close rate
20–35%
AE selling hours / mo
≈ 120
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Why steady-state MRR matters more than this month's number

New MRR is the inflow. Steady-state MRR is where the business actually settles when the bathtub fills up — new cohorts coming in equal old cohorts churning out. If steady-state is below your cost base, more leads won't fix it: retention is the leak.

Pipeline coverage: how many leads you actually need

If you need 20 new customers a month and you close 1 in 5, you need 100 SQLs entering the pipeline every month — not 100 form fills, 100 actually-qualified leads. Run this calculator against your number target, not your input target.

  • Self-serve SMB: 8–12× coverage typical (low close, low touch).
  • PLG + sales-assist: 4–6× coverage on trials → paid.
  • Mid-market AE-led: 4–5× coverage on qualified opps.
  • Enterprise: 3–4× coverage on stage-2+ opportunities.

Sales effort is the silent cost

An AE realistically sells ~120 hours a month (the rest is admin, internal meetings, pipeline hygiene). If the calculator says you need 600 sales hours, you need five AEs — or the close rate has to go up, the cycle has to compress, or hours-per-deal has to fall through better collateral and qualification.

What to do when the numbers don't work

The four levers — leads, close rate, deal size, retention — are not equal.

  • Raising close rate 5 points is usually cheaper than doubling leads.
  • Extending retention from 12 → 18 months adds 50% to LTV without touching acquisition.
  • Deal-size leverage (packaging, annual prepay) compounds with retention.
  • More leads at the same close rate just means more wasted sales hours.

FAQ

How is this different from an MRR or LTV/CAC calculator?

MRR calculators model existing recurring revenue and churn. LTV/CAC compares unit economics. This calculator works backward from raw lead volume and close rate to forecast how much MRR a sales motion will actually produce and how many AE hours it requires — useful for sales planning and headcount.

Should deal size be MRR or ACV?

Monthly contract value. If you sell annual contracts of $5,400, enter $450. The retention input handles the rest — a 12-month annual contract that auto-renews twice is effectively 36 months of retention.

What's a realistic close rate?

15–25% on qualified SMB leads. 20–35% on enterprise opportunities that reached stage 2+. Below 10% across qualified leads usually means the lead bar is too low or the ICP isn't tight enough — fix qualification before adding leads.

Why is steady-state MRR lower than I expected?

Steady state = new MRR × retention months. If new MRR is $20K and retention is 12 months, steady-state caps at $240K — and that's only when inflow equals churn. Most teams overestimate how long retention actually is; recheck against billing data, not the forecast.

How do I use this for hiring planning?

Take your MRR target, back out new customers needed, then back out leads. The sales-hours and AE-FTE rows tell you headcount required at current productivity. If FTE > current team, you need either more AEs or higher productivity (close rate, hours-per-deal) before adding leads.

How this calculator is built

Independently maintained

Written by Sam Doshi and the RevenueLab editorial team. We don't sell the data feeds this tool is built on.

Sourced from primary data

Benchmarks come from public AdSense / Stripe / IRS disclosures and reader-submitted data — never third-party "$X per view" claims. Full methodology.

Last reviewed

July 2026. We re-check every figure on the platform on a rolling quarterly cycle.

Editorial standards

See our editorial policy and disclaimer. Results are estimates, not advice.