{
  "slug": "tuition-increase-attrition-impact",
  "title": "Tuition Increase Attrition Impact Calculator",
  "heading": "Tuition Increase Attrition Impact Calculator",
  "category": "financial",
  "url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/tuition-increase-attrition-impact",
  "summary": "See whether a tuition hike still grows revenue after expected family losses.",
  "description": "Raising tuition always risks losing a slice of families, and directors need to know the break-even attrition rate before announcing a change. This calculator takes your planned tuition increase, current enrollment, and an assumed attrition rate from the increase, then computes net revenue after losses and the maximum attrition you could absorb before the increase becomes a net loss. It also shows the per-child revenue gain from families who stay, which is often larger than people expect for even a modest percentage bump. Elasticity in childcare is lower than in most retail categories because switching centers involves disruption for the child and a scramble for a waitlist spot elsewhere, but it isn't zero, especially at price-sensitive tiers or right after a well-publicized rate hike. Use this before a rate change and again a quarter after to compare actual attrition to what you modeled, tightening your assumptions for next year's increase.",
  "formula": "New revenue = enrolled × (1 − attrition%) × new tuition; breakeven attrition% = 1 − (old tuition ÷ new tuition).",
  "dateModified": "2026-09-30",
  "run_url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/api/public/calc?tool=tuition-increase-attrition-impact",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "id": "enrolled",
      "label": "Currently enrolled children",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 60,
      "unit": null,
      "min": 1,
      "max": null
    },
    {
      "id": "currentTuition",
      "label": "Current monthly tuition",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 1200,
      "unit": "$",
      "min": 1,
      "max": null
    },
    {
      "id": "increasePct",
      "label": "Planned tuition increase",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 6,
      "unit": "%",
      "min": 0,
      "max": 100
    },
    {
      "id": "attritionPct",
      "label": "Expected attrition from increase",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 4,
      "unit": "%",
      "min": 0,
      "max": 100
    }
  ],
  "outputs": [
    {
      "id": "revenueChange",
      "label": "Net revenue change / month",
      "format": "currency",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": true
    },
    {
      "id": "newRevenue",
      "label": "Projected new monthly revenue",
      "format": "currency",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    },
    {
      "id": "revenueChangePct",
      "label": "Revenue change vs. today",
      "format": "percent",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    },
    {
      "id": "breakevenAttrition",
      "label": "Max attrition before losing money",
      "format": "percent",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    },
    {
      "id": "newTuition",
      "label": "New monthly tuition",
      "format": "currency",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    }
  ],
  "worked_example": {
    "inputs": [
      "Currently enrolled children: 60",
      "Current monthly tuition: 1200 $",
      "Planned tuition increase: 6 %",
      "Expected attrition from increase: 4 %"
    ],
    "outputs": [
      "Net revenue change / month: $1,267",
      "Projected new monthly revenue: $73,267",
      "Revenue change vs. today: 1.8%",
      "Max attrition before losing money: 5.7%",
      "New monthly tuition: $1,272"
    ]
  },
  "how_to": {
    "title": "How to use this",
    "steps": [
      "Enter currently enrolled children.",
      "Enter current monthly tuition ($).",
      "Enter planned tuition increase (%).",
      "Enter expected attrition from increase (%).",
      "Read your net revenue change / month on the right — it updates as you type.",
      "Hit Share to keep the scenario or send it to someone."
    ]
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Conservative",
      "description": "Lower-end numbers — what if things land soft?",
      "values": {
        "enrolled": 36,
        "currentTuition": 720,
        "increasePct": 3.5999999999999996,
        "attritionPct": 2.4
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Typical",
      "description": "Defaults — the most common real-world setup.",
      "values": {
        "enrolled": 60,
        "currentTuition": 1200,
        "increasePct": 6,
        "attritionPct": 4
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Ambitious",
      "description": "Higher-end numbers — what if things really pop?",
      "values": {
        "enrolled": 96,
        "currentTuition": 1920,
        "increasePct": 9.600000000000001,
        "attritionPct": 6.4
      }
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Results are estimates before tax, fees, and inflation unless an input explicitly covers them.",
    "Rates are treated as fixed for the whole period — variable-rate products will drift from this projection.",
    "This is educational maths, not financial advice. Check anything contractual with the lender or your accountant."
  ],
  "faq": [
    {
      "q": "How much attrition should I actually expect?",
      "a": "Industry rules of thumb suggest 2-5% attrition for a single-digit percentage increase when it's communicated with 60+ days notice and tied to a visible reason (minimum wage change, new programming). Increases above 8-10%, or ones sprung with little notice, tend to push attrition into double digits, especially among families already comparison shopping."
    },
    {
      "q": "Why does breakeven attrition matter more than the raw revenue number?",
      "a": "It tells you your margin of safety. If breakeven attrition is 5% and you expect 4%, you have a thin cushion and should watch withdrawal notices closely in the following two months. If breakeven attrition is 15%, you have a lot of room and can be confident the increase pays off even if response is worse than planned."
    },
    {
      "q": "Does this account for replacing lost families from the waitlist?",
      "a": "No, it models only the enrolled population reacting to price. If you have an active waitlist, backfilling departed slots at the new (higher) tuition rate makes almost every increase profitable regardless of attrition, since replacement families never experienced the old, lower price as a reference point."
    },
    {
      "q": "Should tuition increases be the same percentage across all classrooms?",
      "a": "Not necessarily. Infant and toddler rooms have higher cost per child from tighter ratios and often have longer waitlists, meaning they can absorb larger increases with less attrition risk than a preschool room competing against many nearby options."
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/classroom-enrollment-breakeven",
    "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/financial-aid-discount-rate",
    "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/waitlist-conversion-value"
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "citation": "RevenueLab — Tuition Increase Attrition Impact Calculator (https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/tuition-increase-attrition-impact)"
}