{ "slug": "survivor-pool-pick-ev-calculator", "title": "Survivor Pool Pick EV Calculator", "heading": "Survivor Pool Pick EV Calculator", "category": "math", "url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/survivor-pool-pick-ev-calculator", "summary": "Weigh a safe pick against a contrarian pick in an NFL survivor pool.", "description": "In a survivor (eliminator) pool, you pick one team to win each week, can never reuse a team, and are eliminated the moment your pick loses — meaning the goal isn't just picking the most likely winner each week, it's surviving longer than the rest of the pool. This creates a strategic wrinkle: picking the same obvious heavy favorite everyone else picks maximizes your own week-to-week survival odds but doesn't help you separate from the field if you're trying to win outright, since a mass elimination event doesn't happen when everyone picked correctly. This calculator compares two candidate picks by their win probability and the estimated percentage of the pool also picking each option, producing a simple 'pool equity' score that rewards picks with a good mix of high win probability and lower public pick percentage — useful for later-round strategy once survival alone isn't enough to win the pool outright.", "formula": "Pool equity score = win probability × (1 − pool pick percentage), rewarding safer picks that fewer opponents also made, which matters more once pool size shrinks and outright winning (not just surviving) becomes the goal.", "dateModified": "2026-09-30", "run_url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/api/public/calc?tool=survivor-pool-pick-ev-calculator", "inputs": [ { "id": "teamAWinProb", "label": "Team A win probability", "kind": "number", "hint": null, "default": 78, "unit": "%", "min": 1, "max": 99 }, { "id": "teamAPoolPct", "label": "% of pool also picking Team A", "kind": "number", "hint": null, "default": 45, "unit": "%", "min": 0, "max": 100 }, { "id": "teamBWinProb", "label": "Team B win probability", "kind": "number", "hint": null, "default": 65, "unit": "%", "min": 1, "max": 99 }, { "id": "teamBPoolPct", "label": "% of pool also picking Team B", "kind": "number", "hint": null, "default": 10, "unit": "%", "min": 0, "max": 100 } ], "outputs": [ { "id": "scoreA", "label": "Team A pool equity score", "format": "decimal", "hint": null, "primary": true }, { "id": "scoreB", "label": "Team B pool equity score", "format": "decimal", "hint": null, "primary": false }, { "id": "survivalEdgeA", "label": "Team A raw win probability", "format": "percent", "hint": null, "primary": false }, { "id": "survivalEdgeB", "label": "Team B raw win probability", "format": "percent", "hint": null, "primary": false } ], "worked_example": { "inputs": [ "Team A win probability: 78 %", "% of pool also picking Team A: 45 %", "Team B win probability: 65 %", "% of pool also picking Team B: 10 %" ], "outputs": [ "Team A pool equity score: 42.9", "Team B pool equity score: 58.5", "Team A raw win probability: 78%", "Team B raw win probability: 65%" ] }, "how_to": { "title": "How to use this", "steps": [ "Enter team a win probability (%).", "Enter % of pool also picking team a (%).", "Enter team b win probability (%).", "Enter % of pool also picking team b (%).", "Read your team a pool equity score on the right — it updates as you type.", "Hit Share to keep the scenario or send it to someone." ] }, "scenarios": [ { "name": "Conservative", "description": "Lower-end numbers — what if things land soft?", "values": { "teamAWinProb": 47, "teamAPoolPct": 27, "teamBWinProb": 39, "teamBPoolPct": 6 } }, { "name": "Typical", "description": "Defaults — the most common real-world setup.", "values": { "teamAWinProb": 78, "teamAPoolPct": 45, "teamBWinProb": 65, "teamBPoolPct": 10 } }, { "name": "Ambitious", "description": "Higher-end numbers — what if things really pop?", "values": { "teamAWinProb": 99, "teamAPoolPct": 72, "teamBWinProb": 99, "teamBPoolPct": 16 } } ], "limitations": [ "Results are rounded for display; the underlying calculation keeps full precision.", "Very large or very small inputs may hit floating-point limits in the browser.", "Inputs outside the accepted range are clamped rather than rejected." ], "faq": [ { "q": "Should I always just pick the biggest favorite each week in a survivor pool?", "a": "Early in the pool, yes — maximizing your own survival probability with the safest available pick is correct while the pool is large, since your main goal is just not getting eliminated. Later, once the pool has shrunk to a small number of survivors, picking against the field (a good team fewer people picked) starts to matter more, because you need to separate from opponents, not just survive." }, { "q": "Why does the percentage of the pool also picking my team matter?", "a": "If everyone picks the same favorite and it wins, nobody gets eliminated and you've gained no ground on the field. If you pick a solid team that most of the pool ignored and it wins while the popular favorite loses, you gain a large group of eliminated opponents in one week — which is usually more valuable late in a pool than a marginal survival-probability improvement." }, { "q": "Where do I get pool pick percentage estimates?", "a": "Some large public survivor pools and pick-tracking sites publish aggregate pick percentages by team and week. For private pools among friends, this is usually a rough personal estimate based on who's already used which teams — treat it as directional input, not a precise figure." } ], "related": [ "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/fantasy-league-payout-calculator", "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/expected-value-bet-calculator", "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/season-win-total-ev-calculator" ], "license": "CC-BY-4.0", "citation": "RevenueLab — Survivor Pool Pick EV Calculator (https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/survivor-pool-pick-ev-calculator)" }