{
  "slug": "long-term-care-cost-projection",
  "title": "Long-Term Care Cost Projection Calculator",
  "heading": "Long-Term Care Cost Projection Calculator",
  "category": "financial",
  "url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/long-term-care-cost-projection",
  "summary": "Project future nursing home, assisted living, or home care costs with inflation.",
  "description": "Long-term care costs vary enormously by setting and region, and they inflate faster than general prices — historically around 3-5% annually according to industry cost-of-care surveys. This calculator takes today's local cost for a chosen care setting, projects it forward to the age you expect to need care using a compounding care-cost inflation rate, and multiplies by an expected duration of care to estimate the total lifetime cost. It also breaks out the annual cost at the start of care so you can compare it against expected income sources like Social Security, a pension, or long-term care insurance benefits to see the funding gap.",
  "formula": "Future annual cost = current annual cost × (1 + inflation)^years until care; total cost = future annual cost × years of care needed (compounding within the care period).",
  "dateModified": "2026-09-30",
  "run_url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/api/public/calc?tool=long-term-care-cost-projection",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "id": "currentAnnualCost",
      "label": "Current annual cost of care in your area",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 108000,
      "unit": "$",
      "min": 0,
      "max": null
    },
    {
      "id": "yearsUntilCare",
      "label": "Years until care is likely needed",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 20,
      "unit": null,
      "min": 0,
      "max": 50
    },
    {
      "id": "inflationRate",
      "label": "Long-term care cost inflation rate",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 4,
      "unit": "%",
      "min": 0,
      "max": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "careDuration",
      "label": "Expected duration of care needed",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 3,
      "unit": "years",
      "min": 0,
      "max": 15
    },
    {
      "id": "existingIncome",
      "label": "Income/benefits available toward care per year",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 30000,
      "unit": "$",
      "min": 0,
      "max": null
    }
  ],
  "outputs": [
    {
      "id": "totalCost",
      "label": "Total projected long-term care cost",
      "format": "currency",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": true
    },
    {
      "id": "futureAnnualCost",
      "label": "Annual cost at start of care",
      "format": "currency",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    },
    {
      "id": "fundingGap",
      "label": "Funding gap after income/benefits",
      "format": "currency",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    },
    {
      "id": "totalIncomeOffset",
      "label": "Total income/benefits over care period",
      "format": "currency",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    }
  ],
  "worked_example": {
    "inputs": [
      "Current annual cost of care in your area: 108000 $",
      "Years until care is likely needed: 20",
      "Long-term care cost inflation rate: 4 %",
      "Expected duration of care needed: 3 years",
      "Income/benefits available toward care per year: 30000 $"
    ],
    "outputs": [
      "Total projected long-term care cost: $738,699",
      "Annual cost at start of care: $236,641",
      "Funding gap after income/benefits: $648,699",
      "Total income/benefits over care period: $90,000"
    ]
  },
  "how_to": {
    "title": "How to use this",
    "steps": [
      "Enter current annual cost of care in your area ($).",
      "Enter years until care is likely needed.",
      "Enter long-term care cost inflation rate (%).",
      "Enter expected duration of care needed (years).",
      "Enter income/benefits available toward care per year ($).",
      "Read your total projected long-term care cost on the right — it updates as you type.",
      "Hit Share to keep the scenario or send it to someone."
    ]
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Conservative",
      "description": "Lower-end numbers — what if things land soft?",
      "values": {
        "currentAnnualCost": 65000,
        "yearsUntilCare": 12,
        "inflationRate": 2.4,
        "careDuration": 1.7999999999999998,
        "existingIncome": 18000
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Typical",
      "description": "Defaults — the most common real-world setup.",
      "values": {
        "currentAnnualCost": 108000,
        "yearsUntilCare": 20,
        "inflationRate": 4,
        "careDuration": 3,
        "existingIncome": 30000
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Ambitious",
      "description": "Higher-end numbers — what if things really pop?",
      "values": {
        "currentAnnualCost": 173000,
        "yearsUntilCare": 32,
        "inflationRate": 6.4,
        "careDuration": 4.800000000000001,
        "existingIncome": 48000
      }
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Results are estimates before tax, fees, and inflation unless an input explicitly covers them.",
    "Rates are treated as fixed for the whole period — variable-rate products will drift from this projection.",
    "This is educational maths, not financial advice. Check anything contractual with the lender or your accountant."
  ],
  "faq": [
    {
      "q": "Why does long-term care inflate faster than general inflation?",
      "a": "Care costs are driven mostly by labor — nursing aides, RNs, and facility staff — in an industry with chronic worker shortages, plus rising real estate and liability insurance costs for facilities. Annual cost-of-care surveys have shown long-term care inflation running 3-5% per year over the past two decades, consistently above the broader CPI, which is why using general inflation assumptions undersells the real future cost."
    },
    {
      "q": "What's the difference between assisted living, nursing home, and home care costs?",
      "a": "Nationally, a private nursing home room typically costs the most (often $110k+/year), assisted living runs lower (commonly $60k-$70k/year), and home health aide costs depend heavily on hours needed per week — a few hours a day is far cheaper than full-time care but can exceed facility costs if round-the-clock supervision is required. Use your local current cost, since regional variation is large."
    },
    {
      "q": "How does long-term care insurance affect this calculation?",
      "a": "A long-term care insurance policy's daily or monthly benefit amount should be added into the 'existing income' input as an offset, since it directly reduces the funding gap. Keep in mind most LTC policies have their own benefit inflation riders and lifetime maximums, so check whether the policy's payout keeps pace with the same inflation rate used here."
    },
    {
      "q": "Should I plan for average care duration or a worse-case scenario?",
      "a": "Averages understate the tail risk — many people need no long-term care at all, while others need it for 5+ years, especially with dementia-related conditions. Government data suggests roughly 70% of people over 65 will need some long-term care, with average paid duration commonly cited around 2-4 years, but planning around a 3-5 year scenario is a reasonable middle ground for most households."
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/disability-benefit-gap",
    "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/life-insurance-ladder-sizing"
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "citation": "RevenueLab — Long-Term Care Cost Projection Calculator (https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/long-term-care-cost-projection)"
}