{
  "slug": "futures-bet-hold-calculator",
  "title": "Futures Bet Hold Calculator",
  "heading": "Futures Market Hold Calculator",
  "category": "math",
  "url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/futures-bet-hold-calculator",
  "summary": "See how much total vig a futures board (all teams/players) is holding.",
  "description": "Futures markets, like a full board of 32 NFL teams to win the Super Bowl, always sum to well over 100% implied probability because the book needs a cushion across every possible outcome, not just a two-way line. This overround on futures boards is typically much larger than a standard game line's vig, often 20-30% or more on a full 32-team or 30-team market, because there's less competitive pressure and more outcomes to price. This calculator takes the total implied probability of every entry on a futures board (add up implied probability across every team or player) and tells you the total hold, plus what a specific entry's fair, no-vig probability and odds would be if that excess were removed proportionally. This helps you judge whether a specific futures price is reasonable relative to the board as a whole, and explains why futures odds often look worse across every option than you'd expect from a single game line at the same sportsbook.",
  "formula": "Hold = (sum of all implied probabilities on the board) − 100%. Fair probability for one entry = its implied probability ÷ total implied probability.",
  "dateModified": "2026-09-30",
  "run_url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/api/public/calc?tool=futures-bet-hold-calculator",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "id": "totalImplied",
      "label": "Sum of implied probability across entire board",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 125,
      "unit": "%",
      "min": 100,
      "max": null
    },
    {
      "id": "entryOdds",
      "label": "Your team/player's odds (American)",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 1000,
      "unit": null,
      "min": null,
      "max": null
    },
    {
      "id": "stake",
      "label": "Stake",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 50,
      "unit": "$",
      "min": 0,
      "max": null
    }
  ],
  "outputs": [
    {
      "id": "hold",
      "label": "Total board hold",
      "format": "percent",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": true
    },
    {
      "id": "entryImplied",
      "label": "Your entry's raw implied probability",
      "format": "percent",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    },
    {
      "id": "fairProb",
      "label": "Your entry's vig-free fair probability",
      "format": "percent",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    },
    {
      "id": "payoutIfWin",
      "label": "Total payout if it wins",
      "format": "currency",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    }
  ],
  "worked_example": {
    "inputs": [
      "Sum of implied probability across entire board: 125 %",
      "Your team/player's odds (American): 1000",
      "Stake: 50 $"
    ],
    "outputs": [
      "Total board hold: 25.0%",
      "Your entry's raw implied probability: 9.09%",
      "Your entry's vig-free fair probability: 7.27%",
      "Total payout if it wins: $550.00"
    ]
  },
  "how_to": {
    "title": "How to use this",
    "steps": [
      "Enter sum of implied probability across entire board (%).",
      "Enter your team/player's odds (american).",
      "Enter stake ($).",
      "Read your total board hold on the right — it updates as you type.",
      "Hit Share to keep the scenario or send it to someone."
    ]
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Conservative",
      "description": "Lower-end numbers — what if things land soft?",
      "values": {
        "totalImplied": 100,
        "entryOdds": 600,
        "stake": 30
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Typical",
      "description": "Defaults — the most common real-world setup.",
      "values": {
        "totalImplied": 125,
        "entryOdds": 1000,
        "stake": 50
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Ambitious",
      "description": "Higher-end numbers — what if things really pop?",
      "values": {
        "totalImplied": 200,
        "entryOdds": 1600,
        "stake": 80
      }
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Results are rounded for display; the underlying calculation keeps full precision.",
    "Very large or very small inputs may hit floating-point limits in the browser.",
    "Inputs outside the accepted range are clamped rather than rejected."
  ],
  "faq": [
    {
      "q": "Why is futures hold so much bigger than a game line's vig?",
      "a": "A two-way game line only has to balance two outcomes, so competition and arbitrage pressure keep the hold tight, usually 2-5%. A 32-team futures board has to price every team's championship odds simultaneously with far less liquidity per entry, so books build in a much larger cushion, commonly 20-30% total overround, to cover the wider uncertainty and lower betting volume on longshots."
    },
    {
      "q": "How do I estimate the total board implied probability without adding 32 numbers by hand?",
      "a": "Most odds-comparison sites list the full futures board; convert each price to implied probability with an odds converter and sum them, or use a spreadsheet. Roughly, if odds boards look 'tight' (favorites under +300, no team longer than +5000), expect hold near 15-20%; wide-open boards with many longshots often hold 25%+."
    },
    {
      "q": "Does high hold mean I shouldn't bet futures?",
      "a": "It means the bar for a good bet is higher, not that futures are unbettable. If your own probability estimate for a team exceeds its fair (vig-removed) probability by a real margin, the bet can still have positive expected value even against a 25% hold — you just need a bigger perceived edge to clear that bar than you would on a standard game line."
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/no-vig-fair-odds",
    "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/sportsbook-hold-percentage-calculator",
    "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/season-win-total-ev-calculator"
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "citation": "RevenueLab — Futures Bet Hold Calculator (https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/futures-bet-hold-calculator)"
}