{
  "slug": "bitcoin-halving-model",
  "title": "Bitcoin Halving Supply Model",
  "heading": "Bitcoin Halving Supply Model",
  "category": "financial",
  "url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/bitcoin-halving-model",
  "summary": "Block subsidy, annual issuance, and stock-to-flow.",
  "description": "Model the issuance schedule: block reward, coins minted per year, and the stock-to-flow ratio after the next halving.",
  "formula": null,
  "dateModified": "2026-09-30",
  "run_url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/api/public/calc?tool=bitcoin-halving-model",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "id": "reward",
      "label": "Current block subsidy",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 3.125,
      "unit": "BTC",
      "min": null,
      "max": null
    },
    {
      "id": "blockMin",
      "label": "Average block time",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 10,
      "unit": "min",
      "min": null,
      "max": null
    },
    {
      "id": "supply",
      "label": "Circulating supply",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 19800000,
      "unit": "BTC",
      "min": null,
      "max": null
    },
    {
      "id": "halvings",
      "label": "Halvings ahead",
      "kind": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "default": 1,
      "unit": null,
      "min": 0,
      "max": 10
    }
  ],
  "outputs": [
    {
      "id": "future",
      "label": "Block subsidy after halvings",
      "format": "decimal",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": true
    },
    {
      "id": "issuance",
      "label": "New coins per year",
      "format": "number",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    },
    {
      "id": "inflation",
      "label": "Annual issuance rate",
      "format": "percent",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    },
    {
      "id": "s2f",
      "label": "Stock-to-flow ratio",
      "format": "decimal",
      "hint": null,
      "primary": false
    }
  ],
  "worked_example": {
    "inputs": [
      "Current block subsidy: 3.125 BTC",
      "Average block time: 10 min",
      "Circulating supply: 19800000 BTC",
      "Halvings ahead: 1"
    ],
    "outputs": [
      "Block subsidy after halvings: 1.5625",
      "New coins per year: 82,181.25",
      "Annual issuance rate: 0.42%",
      "Stock-to-flow ratio: 240.9"
    ]
  },
  "how_to": {
    "title": "How to use this",
    "steps": [
      "Enter current block subsidy (BTC).",
      "Enter average block time (min).",
      "Enter circulating supply (BTC).",
      "Enter halvings ahead.",
      "Read your block subsidy after halvings on the right — it updates as you type.",
      "Hit Share to keep the scenario or send it to someone."
    ]
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Conservative",
      "description": "Lower-end numbers — what if things land soft?",
      "values": {
        "reward": 1.875,
        "blockMin": 6,
        "supply": 11880000,
        "halvings": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Typical",
      "description": "Defaults — the most common real-world setup.",
      "values": {
        "reward": 3.125,
        "blockMin": 10,
        "supply": 19800000,
        "halvings": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Ambitious",
      "description": "Higher-end numbers — what if things really pop?",
      "values": {
        "reward": 5,
        "blockMin": 16,
        "supply": 31680000,
        "halvings": 2
      }
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Results are estimates before tax, fees, and inflation unless an input explicitly covers them.",
    "Rates are treated as fixed for the whole period — variable-rate products will drift from this projection.",
    "This is educational maths, not financial advice. Check anything contractual with the lender or your accountant."
  ],
  "faq": [
    {
      "q": "How does the bitcoin halving supply model work?",
      "a": "Model the issuance schedule: block reward, coins minted per year, and the stock-to-flow ratio after the next halving."
    },
    {
      "q": "What do I need to enter?",
      "a": "4 values: current block subsidy, average block time, circulating supply, and halvings ahead. Each field starts with a sensible default, so you can change one number at a time and watch the result move."
    },
    {
      "q": "What does the block subsidy after halvings result mean?",
      "a": "It is returned as a decimal number and updates live as you edit the inputs, so you can compare two or three versions of a scenario in a few seconds."
    },
    {
      "q": "Is this calculator free, and do I need an account?",
      "a": "Yes, it's free, and no account is required. Nothing you type is stored on our servers — the maths runs entirely in your browser."
    },
    {
      "q": "How accurate is the result?",
      "a": "It applies the standard formula exactly, so the arithmetic is precise. Results are estimates before tax, fees, and inflation unless an input explicitly covers them."
    },
    {
      "q": "Who is this tool for?",
      "a": "It's built for anyone comparing money scenarios before committing — budgeting a payment, sanity-checking a quote, or seeing what a change in rate or term actually costs."
    }
  ],
  "related": [
    "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/mining-profitability"
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "citation": "RevenueLab — Bitcoin Halving Supply Model (https://www.revenuelab.fyi/toolbox/bitcoin-halving-model)"
}