{
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  "@type": "Dataset",
  "name": "How do you estimate your tax refund from your pay stubs?",
  "description": "Add up year-to-date federal withholding, estimate your actual annual tax from the brackets, and subtract. If your last stub shows $7,200 withheld and your real tax on $70,000 is about $7,400, you're on track for a small bill — not a refund.",
  "url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi/answers/how-to-estimate-tax-refund-from-paycheck",
  "dateModified": "2026-10-01",
  "creator": {
    "@type": "Organization",
    "name": "RevenueLab",
    "url": "https://www.revenuelab.fyi"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "keywords": [
    "Take-Home Pay Calculator",
    "Paycheck Estimator",
    "NYC Paycheck Calculator"
  ],
  "distribution": {
    "@type": "DataDownload",
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  "json": {
    "type": "answer",
    "question": "How do you estimate your tax refund from your pay stubs?",
    "shortAnswer": "Add up year-to-date federal withholding, estimate your actual annual tax from the brackets, and subtract. If your last stub shows $7,200 withheld and your real tax on $70,000 is about $7,400, you're on track for a small bill — not a refund.",
    "tableTitle": "Refund estimate worksheet, single filer (2025)",
    "columns": [
      "Step",
      "Example",
      "Where to find it"
    ],
    "rows": [
      {
        "label": "Project annual gross",
        "value": "$70,000",
        "note": "YTD gross ÷ periods elapsed × 26"
      },
      {
        "label": "Compute actual tax",
        "value": "$7,450",
        "note": "Brackets after $15,000 std deduction"
      },
      {
        "label": "Project annual withholding",
        "value": "$7,200",
        "note": "YTD FITW scaled the same way"
      },
      {
        "label": "Estimated refund / (bill)",
        "value": "($250)",
        "note": "Withholding − actual tax"
      }
    ],
    "context": "A big refund means you gave the government an interest-free loan — the average US refund is around $3,000, which is $250/month of take-home you could have had all year. Aim for a small refund or small bill by adjusting your W-4 (the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator does this precisely). Credits change everything: the Child Tax Credit ($2,000 per child) and Earned Income Credit can produce a refund larger than everything you withheld.",
    "methodology": "Estimate = projected annual withholding − (bracket tax on projected taxable income − credits). 2025 single brackets and $15,000 standard deduction used in the example.",
    "dateModified": "2026-10-01",
    "relatedCalculators": [
      {
        "label": "Take-Home Pay Calculator",
        "to": "/paycheck-take-home-calculator"
      },
      {
        "label": "Paycheck Estimator",
        "to": "/paycheck-estimator"
      },
      {
        "label": "NYC Paycheck Calculator",
        "to": "/nyc-paycheck-calculator"
      }
    ],
    "relatedReading": [
      {
        "label": "How to read pay stub deductions",
        "to": "/answers/how-to-read-pay-stub-deductions"
      }
    ]
  }
}